JD Vance's complaints about "fake polls" eviscerated by massive explosion of energy at DNC

CHICAGO — Organizers kicked off the Democratic National Convention by immediately demonstrating that they know how to throw a party better than Republicans. Democrats scheduled their elderly leader who rambles on too long for the first night, not the last. President Joe Biden's Monday night speech started slow and only got more boring, but the crowd cheered him gamely, chanting, "Thank you, Joe!" Part of that was real gratitude for the surprisingly effective job he's done in his four years in office. But the cheers reflected the attendees' joy at knowing this whole thing is done with. It's time to move forward with a candidate who embodies their hopes for the future. 

In contrast, Donald Trump's capstone speech at the Republican National Convention was disastrous. Biden may have been long-winded and boring, but Trump was all those things while also sounding objectively weird. His speech ping-ponged between self-pity and incoherence, delivered in that odd sing-song quiet voice he uses when his aides tell him to act "serious." The crowd, always eager to flatter the cult leader's ego, cheered, but it felt forced and exhausted. The Democratic National Convention, so far, has maintained the organic energy of a champagne bottle being uncorked —and that momentum appears to be causing the Trump campaign to short-circuit.  

"Consistently what you’ve seen in 2016 and 2020, is that the media uses fake polls to drive down Republican turnout and to create dissension and conflict within Republican voters," Trump's running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, said on Fox News Sunday. Shannon Bream of Fox News asked him about polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris edging up or even leading in various swing states, to which Vance rushed to show once again that there are no limits for him when it comes to embracing his boss's delusions or depravities.

“The Trump campaign is in a very, very good spot," he insisted. 

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Vance is not a dumb man, so we can guess he's lying rather than delusional. The FiveThirtyEight aggregator has Harris with a small lead of 2.9 points nationally, after correctly predicting the outcome of 2020 and even slightly underrating the Democratic turnout in 2022. But, having been on the ground at both the Republican National Convention (RNC) and Democratic National Convention (DNC), I can say he's off in the vibes department, as well. While people at the RNC  — which was before Biden dropped out of the race — were confident about the election, they seemed oddly muted for people who think they're about to sail into victory. In contrast, the DNC's enthusiasm was off the charts from the beginning. 

As Andrew O'Hehir wrote about the RNC last month, the convention was "a startlingly quiet, polite, low-energy event." We did witness the audience get hyped up for Hulk Hogan, but even that has caveats: It was the last night, so more people bothered to show up. Hogan is a professional wrestler, an expert at riling up crowds over nonsense. (Though the actual message of his speech was terrifying and fascistic.) And frankly, after four days of listlessly wandering around hoping something interesting might happen, the attendees seemed eager to feel something. But Trump destroyed Hogan's hard work with his whining, droning, weird speech. 

On Tuesday night, Harris made the contrast crystal clear by holding a rally at the Fiserv Forum, where the RNC was held. It speaks volumes about the enthusiasm gap that it's not even surprising that the turnout and volume at this Harris rally outdid what Trump got at his own convention last month. 

The difference was dramatic enough that Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, appeared at the DNC by remote video from Milwaukee. It created the visual effect of more than doubling what Trump was able to turn, despite covering his ear with a comically oversized bandage and everything. 

Polls cannot meaningfully measure enthusiasm, but there are other signs that Trump is losing steam. As Heather "Digby" Parton wrote Monday at Salon, she's seeing "far fewer Trump signs out in the rural areas" than in years past. And, of course, Trump himself doesn't seem to be doing too well. In his public appearances, he keeps ranting about the change in Democratic nominees, calling it a "coup" and an "overthrow" — the usual psychological projection from a man who really did attempt a coup to overthrow Biden's presidency. For some reason, his attempt to "counterprogram" the first night of the DNC was a lackluster speech in front of a small group of people and some manufacturing equipment. It appears the 150 folks who showed up were struggling to stay awake as Trump talked and talked about nothing anyone cares about. 

To be sure, Biden's speech went on too long, but people were happy over what it symbolized: He is moving on now.

"America, I gave my best to you," the president said, making it clear that he, too, sees this as the farewell address the audience believed it to be. Now the process of remembering him fondly begins. 

Trump, meanwhile, will only be remembered fondly by the most deplorable people. But he refuses to go away, even though his schtick is growing ever more tiresome. He's struggling to recapture the shock value that once came so easily to him because he is saddled with severe personality disorders that allow him to say the vile things decent human beings are incapable of. He's even tried leveling sexually explicit smears at her, but it was greeted by liberals and the press with a shrug. Trump being the worst isn't titillating anymore. He is, to quote a statement from the Harris campaign, "old and quite weird." 

Trump's entire appeal to his base was that he knows how to "trigger the liberals." But if the liberals aren't triggered anymore, what good is he to them? It is finally, after nine years of this trolling, reaching the point of that famous Onion article from 2001: "Marilyn Manson Now Going Door-To-Door Trying To Shock People." This is a big shift, even from the last election. In 2020, MAGA types could still get a sadistic glee out of liberals, by refusing to follow public health guidelines and spreading the coronavirus. Biden won because people were exhausted and fearful, approaching their ballots with grim determination. But the whole election cycle was dominated by this trigger-the-liberals mentality, from the videos of right-wingers refusing to wear masks in public to, of course, the terrifying violence of January 6. 

With Harris as the nominee, however, you can feel Democratic voters unclenching. This is not a crowd that feels "triggered." The mood is giddy. There's a scent of hope in the air. There's plenty of criticism of Trump, but it's no longer coming from a place of cornered animals trying to survive. The tone towards that babbling old fascist is one of contempt. Instead of flinching, Democrats are laughing in Trump's face. No wonder he's even more obsessed with crowd sizes and ratings than usual. He used to be the one offering entertainment value, even if it was only to his base that just wanted to inflict pain on their perceived enemies. Now it's Harris who is captivating, this time to a nation that wants to feel something other than despair. 

Of course, Trump can still win. His base is grumpy and bitter, but they are numerous. A vote cast out of spite still counts as much as a vote cast out of hope. The Harris campaign has a lot of work ahead, turning that enthusiasm into actual ballots. No one should be complacent. As Harris herself keeps emphasizing, she's the underdog in this race, especially when the Electoral College counts more heavily the votes from rural and suburban areas, where the MAGA anger still dominates. 

But there's also no doubt that there is nothing "fake" about the energy Harris is generating. The DNC is practically vibrating with it. Even as they stand in interminable security lines to enter, the attendees have a buoyant air about them. It's a striking contrast with the get-it-over-with flavor of the RNC. People want to look forward to the future again. For the first time in a long time, it feels like that's possible.